Tumble mumble 2 - Rescuing the Llamas in the first week of September
Great news! Llama portfolio was previously at a position of -1.18%. It is now at an overall position of -0.34%!
One week of effort has helped put it in a better state. Cash holdings now stand at over 50% too, as i hold more cash for short-term opportunistic tumble mumble trades.
So what did i do during the week...
I stuck to my strategy of buying on the cheap. Micro Focus was the first trial, and it didn't not work out too well in terms of trade pricing. Getting in at 13.40 was too high. You can read more about it here.
1. Buying into Afya Group at 24.68 (AFYA)
Well, this company is indeed impressive as it promised great growth, and monopolistic opportunities in Brazil's healthcare education sector. It has recently acquired another health care education provider, and you can say it is probably the only provider of healthcare education from high school to Undergrad to Graduate levels.
Well, it is a good stock to hold at this price level, but I decided to get out at 24.90 due to low volumes and lack of action. No gain / loss for this stock.
Simply, I felt I was too late into the stock.
Take a look at 1 month price chart below, a better time to buy the stock is at the yellow highlighted region. But I got in only at the next region at the arrow pointing downwards.
My rationale for entering was because this company exceeded expectations in the recent results release. It is profitable, has great growth, and PE ratio is only at about 23 after the great drop.
2. NAPCO Security trades (NSSC)
I got in at $28.25 and got out at $29. Next day, I got back in at 26.15. Similarly, it has suffered a tumble mumble form its recent price of $34. I am really getting opportunistic and would sell off my holdings in the next few days.
This company is another case of exceeding analyst expectations, yet still falling greatly.
From the 1 month price chart below, the first trade was at the blur circle region. The second trade was made at the yellow highlighted region.
Well, it has met analyst expectations with an EPS of $0.26, but exceeded expectations in terms of revenue. Why should it fall -20%. Well, the volatility gives room for trading. Will update my trades here in due time.
3. Dipping my hands into Oil (ETF: USO)
Any drop in WTI crude oil price to $52 and below excites me. People always question me on my oil trades, however I stick to my principle. Simply, because oil is a scarce resource. It has many functions and purposes in the world.
I would trade oil through ETF - United States Oil (USO). This time, I got in at 11.04 and managed to get out at 11.90 within the week. Well, abit of luck was on my side as Carrie Lam, Hong Kong's Chief Executive, announced the withdrawal of Extradition bill. This led to oil and stocks spiking up.
This is a 7.7% gain in a 3 day period. And it serves well as part of my Llama portfolio rescue plan.
Will I get back into oil? Yes, at a lower WTI crude oil price of $52 again. Let's wait and see!
Looking at the 1 week price chart, I got in at the yellow highlighted region and sold off at the blue circled region.
4. Beaten down Synchronoss (SNCR)
Whatever that goes down, comes back up. This is true for the case of recent Top losers for this week. Synchronoss was identified as an opportunity from Top losers on 6 Sep 2019 Friday.
The stock price dropped for no good reason. During its recent results release in August, it well exceeded analyst expectations. It is a loss making company, however, it has a healthy balance sheet, and is not going in to bankruptcy anytime soon.
Recently, research house Canaccord Genuity gave it a buy call with target of $13.
You can read more about its company affairs here!
Referring to 1-day price chart below, I got in at $6.16 (yellow highlighted region) and got out at $6.54 (blue circled region). I submitted the Sell trade before I went to bed. As i woke up, i realized that it went as high as $6.89. Oh wells, I am happy that I got to sell at $6.54.
It is still a 6% intraday gain :)
5. Last trade made for the week - Telenav (TNAV)
I got into Telenav at $5.85. It fell this week Thursday from $10.71 to $5.54. Spiked up to $6.50 range and fell back to $5.80 range where i got in.
Balance sheet is okay for this company. It fell simply because of industrial competition where its long-term business partner General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) has announced a deal with Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) for location-based services.
Despite the sharp drop, it is still alot higher than its Jan 2019 price range of around $3.88.
I bought into this stock because of its high volume action and potential spike upwards after a sharp drop. Let's see!
I bought in at the yellow highlighted region at the below 1 week price chart.
Tumbling mumbling away...
I really hope my tumble mumble project of buying stocks after they drop sharply will help in rescuing the Llama portfolio.
After gaining more experience, I will be sharing on my thoughts and criterias for buying into Tumble Mumble scenarios.
Mallinckrodt was a great opportunity to buy into. However, I refrained as the company was really facing bankruptcy risks. This company tumbled cause of Opioid litigations.
Please feel free to leave any comments below too :)