Warren Buffet & many other value investors has also said, "Buy when others are fearful; Sell when everyone is over-hyped." You can only succeed if you do what others will not do.

Really? Trying to read emotions of the market? Hahaha... Laughing because I am a victim of emotions too. Having been introduced to unit trusts, the excitement has made try a few trades, and here I am, stuck with a few mistakes, and portfolio that is under the pressure of bear-market.

Yes, the market is in a bear mode.

I shall share more about my mistakes, and how to read the market soon. For now, lets take a quick look at my portfolio as starters of year 2019.

Dated 3rd Jan 2019

This is a 68.2% equity, 31.8% bonds portfolio. The green ones are income producing, with either a monthly dividend, or quarterly one. In time to come, I would be sharing more ideas on lessons learnt, and how to fix this portfolio...as you can see that I am in a deep red haha!

Being a newbie back in July 2018, this portfolio has just turned 5 months old. As compared to other fund managers, I guess I am faring Okay.

For now, I have become an extremely cautious investor. I am currently looking at Vietnam investment. I am also considering a need to hedge against a potential recession.

To date, it is now 5th Jan, S&P 500 just rallied 4-5% yesterday. This is due to US Fed's willingness to be flexible in their  Rate hikes in 2019.

As read from Reuters, Traders are pricing in only 2 rate hikes instead of 3 for year 2019. US economy added 312,000 jobs in Dec 2018 too, far exceeding expectations of 184,000. See below note from Yahoo! Finance article on Fed Reserve tone.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-rally-blowout-jobs-report-144641900.html
Having had some market colour, and considering that Vietnam equities has retreated quite a fair bit in the past month due to Trade war concerns. Political risks are fair as they will only be having elections in 2021. It is also suggested that Viet Indexes has taken a fall due to iPhone's sluggish revenue forecast. Vietnam is a tech hub, and poorer smartphone demands will mean poorer performance for tech companies in Vietnam. You can take a read here!

To access Vietnam, there is only one unit trust out in the market so far. My plan will be to maintain 6.25% holdings of portfolio in this Viet play. Looking at price history chart of this unit trust, we can see that it is at a low-point. With Viet-index lagging behind other equity indexes, I would say there is room for upside potential.

LionGlobal Vietnam NAV daily price 1-year
Looking at 5 year chart of FTSE Vietnam equivalent, it seems we are back to Dec 2017 price range.
FTSE Vietnam is they key to analysing this unit trust, as the Fund benchmarks against FTSE Vietnam Index.

Screengrab from Bloomberg on FTSE Vietnam

Let's take a look at pictorial representation of Vietnam Annual GDP. It's a growth story!
I have taken a look at GDP per Capita, and it shows a steeper upslope.

With 101 other risks in mind, 6.25% of Viet in portfolio is reasonable. I shall also write up more on other investment ideas in future. Meanwhile, with WTI Crude oil being at $48, my oil play seems to be holding up well. This serves as some good news for the weekend, though I should not be affected by short-term fluctuations and stick to my long-term horizon.


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